Wars are on the wane worldwide

By Frank Greve
Knight Ridder Newspapers

WASHINGTON - Here are some war stories from 2005 that you might have missed:
Shiite Muslim rebels in northern Yemen are giving up. Islamic extremists in Algeria are, too. In Burundi, peaceful elections ended 20 years of bloody civil war. Rebels in Sumatra disarmed after 29 years to participate in elections.
It seems that armed combat is falling out of fashion. According to war historians, the number of conflicts worldwide declined sharply in the last decade, and their overall lethality is the lowest since the 1950s.
Some war historians think the lull is temporary. Others, such as John Mueller of the Ohio State University, think that war has become, at least in developed countries, as obsolete as slavery or dueling. He deems this shift "one of the most important developments in the history of the world."
Terrorism is up, to be sure, but so far it's been killing far fewer people than major clashes between industrialized states did in the past. By Mueller's tally, only in one year, 2001, did terrorism kill more people in a year than World War II did every hour, on average - 1,200 combatants and civilians.
The current toll from terrorism, however, doesn't count the victims of Iraqi and Afghan suicide bombings and other insurgent attacks, which are considered combat deaths. Moreover, a major terrorist attack with chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons could change the picture in an instant, and so could another major war, say between India and Pakistan.
Nevertheless, at least four academic centers that track world conflicts report the same downward trend in global warfare and lesser conflicts: the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway; the Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland in College Park and the Human Security Centre at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver.
The biggest change, experts agree, is the virtual end of wars among industrialized states, mainly Europe's. The 60-years since their last clash in World War II is the longest period of peace in Europe since the Romans ruled much of the continent.
Worldwide, the deadliest conflicts - those with 1,000 or more battle deaths a year - are down 80 percent since 1992, according to the Human Security Centre's latest tally. That mainly reflects two shifts: a decline in wars between countries and a decline in civil wars, which is attributable, in large measure, to effective international peacekeeping.
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Now if only bush could be like his mindless followers, and follow blindly, there would be no wars at all.